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Initially, the former US president appeared to adopt a resolute approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making statements of "serious repercussions" during the summer in case Russia's president persisted blocking truce talks, the former president eventually imposed considerable sanctions on Russia's biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly affected the Russian leader's capacity to fund his war effort in the region.

However, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, reportedly developed by American and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or European participation, the former president has clearly gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Aggression

Trump's plan would essentially favor Putin for invading a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Although bold declarations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative actually weaken that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his business background, the former president seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, like handing Russia a section of Ukraine's land will appease the ruler. Yet, Putin's war is not merely about occupying a damaged area of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it stops acts as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

While freezing in place the already divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would force the nation to give up the whole Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a ten years of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukraine's defenses dangerously weakened.

The area is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified military defenses that are a key barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, providing Putin a clear path to the capital should he later opt to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Additionally, in a step that would enable future fighting simpler for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their present large number troops to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, the plan sets no similar limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's efforts to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, the plan states: "Every radical ideology and actions must be opposed and prohibited." As if to highlight this element, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by conducting votes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative includes Russia commit not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that Putin has broken comparable treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to recognize the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied territory in the Donbas to the government – how should we trust this commitment now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external protection assurances. While the initiative promises a "immediate coordinated military response" in case Russia resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars range from vague to troubling. The initiative would not just block Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit member states from stationing troops on the nation's land, thus precluding the reassurance force, presumptively headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Russia from rebuilding his weakened military, rearming, and reinvading.

International Concern

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "significant, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. Yet different from a powerful national defense – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against future invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of Western powers, including the US administration, to act through arms to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not