🔗 Share this article

Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in later and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But the winner added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump last year backed Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but remain probably 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent held very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island who had a strong turnout. I think there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. But overall, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were strongly supportive. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that each urban center in America can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.